What Happens When You Get Up At 4.30am for 4 Years?

 Jeff Bullas

I have created many habits. We all do.

It keeps life simple and allows us to get things done without having to make constant decisions.

But some are stranger than others.

What shoe I put on first in the morning and what side of the bed I sleep on every night are in the ordinary category.

Have you ever tried to change even those simple habits?

Felt the resistance?

Some habits work for you and others stop you changing and evolving.

A strange habit

What happens when you decide to get up at 4.30am and continue that habit for the next 4 years. And create before starting your day job?

A few years ago I started writing. Not a book but just publishing online.

A passion project.

At first I wrote late in the evening. But it soon changed to an early morning habit.

Five days a week I rose before garbage trucks and street cleaners. Turned off email, social networks and other distractions.

The ritual

The ritual included a coffee, a mug of lemon tea and sitting down and strapping myself in.

I researched, wrote and published. The last step was pushing that content to the waiting world. When you do that one day at a time for years then things start to happen.

Done before most people were awake.

It’s about your creative space. Blocking out time for your “deep work”.

Complexity to simplicity

It’s about designing your life.

Crafting. Sharing your expertise, experience and passion.

We all have the opportunity to be craftsmen. To be creators and producers owning the work. Not beholden to the corporation.

This habit of deep work is not just about productivity. It is much deeper than that.

It is a place where your learning and knowledge goes to a new level. Where you craft complexity into simplicity. Develop insights, influence and thought leadership.

Where magic happens

This personal creation is an investment in you.

But……don’t keep your creation hidden from the world.

Share it.

That is where the magic happens.

The reality is there are different approaches that you can apply to this life transforming habit.

Its not size fits all.

Check out “The One Habit that Transformed my Life“to find out more.

Is This The Beginning of an Era of Low Oil Prices?

What a difference sixteen months can make. In June 2014, global oil prices were trading at nearly US$108 a barrel. This week, oil prices crashed to below US$37 a barrel – the lowest price since the height of the global financial crisis in February 2009.

How does one make any sense of it? Oil prices ultimately are influenced by demand-supply dynamics. Let us look at the supply side first. Prices started falling post June 2014 when the US shale oil production boomed. This led to a huge oversupply in the global oil market.

One hoped that the OPEC cartel would respond with a cut in oil production. But that did not happen. Saudi Arabia is the biggest player in OPEC and has taken the view that maintaining its market share is more important than bolstering oil prices. Thus, the latest OPEC meet saw the cartel choosing not to cut production.

On the demand side, European economies continue to remain weak. Asian economies, most notably China, are slowing. So the demand has waned. The US has also not seen its economy spectacularly pick up. Demand is subdued, and so the market is not able to absorb excess crude supplies.

Thus, too much supply and not much demand has led to the plunge in oil prices. But the real question is whether such low oil prices are here to stay.

First, US shale production has begun to slow down, though not enough to prevent the oil price slide. Big energy companies and US shale gas producers have reduced capital spending to protect their balance sheets and preserve their cash reserves. While US shale producers can stay above water if oil prices are more than US$55 a barrel, anything below that causes real pain.

Second, can OPEC really live with low oil prices? CNN Money has highlighted how OPEC members are divided. One side is led by Saudi Arabia, which remains the top oil production nation. The country, along with its rich allies, can digest very low prices. But the same cannot be said of countries such as Nigeria, Venezuela, and the others for whom high oil prices are necessary to keep their economies going.

So while near-term pressures could remain for oil prices, in the longer run, such low prices may not be sustainable. According to a CNBC article, Dan Yergin, IHS Vice Chairman, expects oil markets to begin balancing in 2016 or 2017. He says that the global oil market cannot remain low like this because it will not encourage the kind of investments required. By 2020, the world oil market is going to need another seven million barrels a day of production. So oil prices eventually will start firming.

What does all of this mean for India? It is not necessarily all good. As oil makes up a large share of the import pie, low prices mean a lower oil import bill and less pressure on the country’s current account balances.

As far as India Inc, lower crude prices will translate into lower input costs thereby boosting profits. This especially could not have happened at a better time as India Inc continues to grapple with weak demand and sluggish revenue growth. However, oil companies, especially those into exploration and production, are likely to face a tough time in the near to medium term as low prices exert considerable pressure on their overall financials and impact viability of fresh investments.

Having said that, Richa Agarwal, our in-house energy analyst, opines that this is more of a short term phenomenon. In the longer run, factors such as high demand for oil, finite supply and rising cost of exploration suggest that oil will be expensive in future.

Ultimately, it is tough to predict where oil prices will head next, though the long term trend suggests that oil prices cannot remain low for very long and will average at somewhere around US$60-65 a barrel. This is more of an average and one could see spikes and plunges along the way. Thus, it would not be prudent to assume that oil prices will stay low for a long time to come.